Reflections on war in Middle East

This conflict is not about Iran’s nuclear capability, or liberation of the Iranian people from a repressive regime. Iran had historically complied with international nuclear regulations and inspections, and was already agreeing to a lot of demands in this space in negotiations before the attack by the US and Isreal, including placing fuel processing outside Iran.

Hypocrisy by government over repression and human rights has been demonstrated time and time again by the US and Israel (and Australia) (e.g. US current ICE actions / GAZA conflict / Australia’s “children overboard” and off-shore detention centres).

Oil is the life blood of the global economic system. Nearly all global transportation relies on it. For the US, this conflict is mostly about the US maintaining hegemony globally, with its military and fossil fuel industry support. Control over oil becomes crucial, with Israel as US proxy in the Middle East for control of oil there. This control can potentially cripple China’s economy if the US can control sufficient oil reserves.

At the very least, it will be used as a key playing card in negotiations with China. It needs this as China has a lot of playing cards itself, including control of raw earth and critical minerals processing, and clean energy infrastructure.

For Isreal, it’s about control of the Middle East and hatred of and annihilation of Arabs. The extreme right wing Zionist lobby see themselves as “the chosen people”, as Israeli journalist, Gideon Levy has said. Similarly, Trump sees himself as the chosen person to ‘Make America Great Again’, using whatever means is necessary. This means we should not rule out the possibility of the use of nuclear weapons to annihilate the Iranians or other enemies.

The US administration, and maybe Israel’s government, thought they could end this war quickly, as in Trump’s Venezuela attack. Israeli’s fundamentalist Zionist administration has some type of power ‘hold’ over Trump (and other US administrations – maybe it will eventually be revealed thru Epstein files), as they do over other leaders. This extends to the ALP and LNP leadership here, as Albanese and Wong’s foolish statements of support show – they jumped in immediately to support this illegal war, even faster than they jumped into the AUKUS deal – absolutely no consultation within or without the ALP’s walls.

Here’s some stats I’ve found from my researching for a paper on the geopolitics of energy that I’m currently writing.
US control of Oil is limited

• US produces 13% of global production, about same as Saudis and Russia.

• US has failed to provide security to the Arab oil producing states. If anything, its interventions over the years have destabilised the region.

• Venezuelan Oil is heavy dirty grade and more expensive to mine/process – needs 100 bill$$ plus to upgrade – needs time and stability in Venezuela to rebuild oil infrastructure. US capture of Venezuelan oil impacts China a little but is unlikely to improve oil security in the US or reduce fuel costs there.

• US has been threatening other oil countries including Iran (now at war), Mexico, Columbia, Greenland, Nigeria and Canada – Greenland is only about strategic military bases and control of Arctic Sea and Russian / Chinese access for shipping as ice melts, and this becomes useable shipping route. That’s because the oil and minerals are under 1km of ice sheet or under the sea in difficult expensive to mine conditions.

US self-sufficiency is a Myth
• US has 200 days net import reserves – that helps stabilise petroleum product prices in the US for a while, but eventually, prices will go up and damage the economy.

• US has 132 refineries, but they can not produce all the grades of fuel and other products they need internally.

• Their major reserves are dirty ‘tight’ shale oil, which is more expensive to produce and polluting.

• US imports 40% of oil needs, mostly from Canada, who they are alienating and who is diversifying to sell elsewhere asap.

• US would need to spend a lot of money and time to upgrade and expand their internal fuel supply infrastructure to become self-sufficient in oil.

• US has 57 registered oil tankers / by comparison, China has 1800 registered oil tankers.

• US ship building industry consists of old, aged workers and very limited production ability – China builds over 50% of worlds shipping efficiently and quickly, including navy ships.

Fighting a War – Another Middle East Conflict
• The fundamental nature of war has changed, as we see in the Ukraine conflict. Missiles and drones dominate attacks, not troops on the ground.

• US needs 100 tankers to supply a major war fleet, e.g. with China over Taiwan or in the Middle East over oil control.

• Trump seems to prefer short, intensive military engagements, not long, drawn-out ones like Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, etc. – all expensive failures. Even if Trump’s military engagements are unsuccessful in real terms, that won’t stop him claiming success!! He’s a salesman and just will keep repeating it as a success right up to and after the mid-term US elections, if they happen??

• Reports suggest Israel stopped the June 2025 12-day attack on Iran due to running out of missiles, as Israel couldn’t stop the Iranian missiles. So, a short sharp war may not result. That appears already to be the case.

• US is already having to get extra missiles from elsewhere such as stocks in South Korea, as their manufacturing capability is limited.

• US has already lost access to ports and military bases in Persian Gulf due to Iran’s strategic attacks and so has lost access to crucial resupplies.

• Some analysts are classifying this as a religious war brought about by extremist right wing religious groups behind the administrations of both the US and Israel, as well as religious extremists in Iran.

• Some military and political analysts say the US with Israel should never have attacked Iran and that it reflects the lack of understanding and knowledge of the region – politics, culture, rugged complex geography and US’s failure in previous conflicts in this region. This has come about because Trump, in his second term, has removed military generals who have disagreed with him in the past, as well as Israeli governments ‘hold’ over the US administration.

• The Iranians have been preparing for this for a long time. They have a very decentralised military structure, making it hard to ‘take out’ the commanders easily. Their last major long conflict was 8 years of war with Iraq, in which the US provided Sadam Hussien with weapons (including chemical weapons) taught them a lot about conflict.

• The real nature and strength of the Iranian military is not fully known or understood by the US. It is believed that they have many more missiles than the US/Israeli forces and that these missiles are highly accurate and use advanced technology, e.g., Iranian ballistic missiles have multiply ‘false/decoy‘ warheads that fly off and detonate as the main missile continues towards the target. These smaller warheads lead US or Israeli missiles to follow them (using infrared tracking and other technology), making the Iranian missiles harder to shoot down and requiring multiple missiles on average to take down one Iranian ballistic missile.

• Drones are cheap weapons as Ukraine/Russia war shows – massive development in all sorts and sizes, mass produced quickly and using even cardboard ones made in Australia that radar can’t detect easily.

• This region provides over 25 percent of oil, LPG and fertiliser supply to the rest of the world (the numbers vary depending of sources). This all goes via the Strait of Hormuz. It’s currently shut down due to a combination of factors including sky-rocketing insurance issues for shipping, and lack of ability of US and Israel to provide protection via destroyers or other means. Even a small number of successful attacks on shipping results in greatly reduced shipping through this area, as the Houthis’s attacks on shipping at the southern end of the Red Sea have shown.

We are in the NEW world and it ain’t looking good!!

Trevor Berill
15 March 2026