4PR. What are the risks to Australia?
Fossil fuel Expert: We are running out of fuel, particularly diesel.
4PR: How much diesel do we have left, particularly after the fire at the Geelong refinery?
Fossil fuel expert: We have less than three weeks’ supply in reserve.
4PR: What about strategic risk?
Expert: In short, our intelligence-sharing, allied involvement (AUKUS, submarines), governments’ support for Boeing, Ferra selling weapons direct to Israel, sending surveillance personnel and aircraft to the Gulf and risks of escalation make Australia a target.
Introduction
As I sit here writing this paper, war over oil in the Middle East has started again and threatens to seriously disrupt the world’s transportation system and economy and kill and injure thousands of innocent people. As well it will increase fossil fuel pollution regionally and globally.
War over resources is not new. American scientist, historian and academic Professor Jared Diamond has written extensively on the collapse of civilisations, including due to resource conflict and resulting wars with neighbours, and environmental collapse due to climate change. Canadian complex systems expert and academic, Professor Thomas Homer-Dixon’s book, The Upside of Down, examines the role energy plays in the expansion and downfall of civilizations and highlights the potential effect of converging crises.
In particular, he showed how empires’ expansion eventually met limits such as supplies for fighting wars, made worse as supply routes are getting longer and longer, and if fighting on multiple fronts. This problem is now playing out for the USA, particularly as its global military and economic hegemony is being challenged by China.
My goal in writing this paper is to explore some aspects of the international geopolitical scene in relation to conflict over resources, particularly energy. I start with an examination of the Trump Administration’s attack on Venezuelan independence and oil, and what advantage, if any, this might give them.
Then I argue that Venezuela is just a small part of a larger picture of control of energy, in particular oil, as it is the dominant transportation fuel. This of course is what drives almost all economic activity.
The outbreak of the illegal war the US and Israeli governments have instigated against Iran is part of a US oil control strategy. I outline the impacts of all fossil fuel use on planetary boundaries that support life on this planet, the human costs associated with this, and the industry’s power over governments.
Next, I explore the role the USA has in trying to control oil supply and the limitations thereof. Then I discuss more on the geopolitics of energy including the transition to renewables, and the implications for electrification of energy systems.
I outline the importance of energy return on energy invested, for both fossil fuels and renewables, in maintaining a ‘sustainable’ society. Then I examine mining required to support various energy supply technologies and potential benefits of a shift to renewables.
Finally, I discuss conflict over energy resources in the context of global development, delaying tactics and progress of the transition away from fossil fuels and some implications for Australia.
Trevor Berrill
20 April 2026