Ever since the Ottoman empire, Lebanon has been a segregated society. Not in the racist sense of the United States under slavery but having diverse communities. These communities are based on different religious groups: five Muslim groups (Shia, Sunni, Druze, Alawite, and Ismaili), 12 Christian groups (Maronite, Greek Orthodox, Greek Catholic, Armenian Catholic, Armenian Orthodox, Syriac Orthodox, Syriac Catholic, Assyrian, Chaldean, Copt, evangelical Protestant, and Roman Catholic).
Towns, villages, and even suburbs of Beirut are still made up of distinct communities. They have their own local government. But when you have an invader like Israel, it is difficult to coordinate a response. Enter Hezbollah, comprised mainly of Shia muslims in the south with their villages and towns most susceptible to the invader. Israel is now attacking municipal infrastructure to undermine Hezbollah’s support base built up over many years under the leadership of the assassinated Hassan Nasrallah. This week, Israel murdered Ahmad Kahil, the mayor of Nabatieh, a large town in the South during a council meeting. At least five of those killed in Wednesday’s strike were municipal workers co-ordinating aid for people remaining in the area,
Israel and the United States have decided on a high-risk pathway to dominate the Middle East. Israel is attempting to change the politics of Lebanon and the region. Foe example the Americans are grooming the head of the Lebanese Armed Forces Joseph Khalil Aoun, a Maronite christian, to be the next President of Lebanon.
The Lebanese political system is built on power sharing between different religious sects. Under this confessional system, the post of the president is occupied by a Christian. Israel’s decapitation of Hezbollah’s leadership has created an opening for the Maronite General to be appointed the President of Lebanon.
In order to achieve an upheaval, Israel, the pointy end of US imperialism, is attempting a divide and rule strategy. In the past Hezbollah has been the most successful at doing this by building up its militia using arms from Iran. For the past two years, it’s Leader Hassan Nasrallah has been a king maker, blocking a Lebanese president who is not an ally of the Shiite group.
US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller put it this way, “What we want to see come out of this situation, ultimately, is Lebanon able to break the grip that Hezbollah has had on the country—more than a grip, break the stranglehold that Hezbollah has had on the country and remove [the] Hezbollah veto over a president.”
Political economy
Lebanon is small country that has been a regional trading centre to Europe from Syria. But it is hard for such a small country to attract capital especially after the civil war in Syria, the economic crisis and the terrible bomb blast at the port of Beirut. Netanyahu is attempting to usurp Lebanon’s role using big Israeli ports like Haifa. He signalled this in the UN when he spoke of the Abraham accords with Arab and African states, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, and Sudan.
By bombing southern Lebanon Netanyahu has driven Shia communities north seeking refuge in schools and municipal centres that are Christian. Now Israel has begun bombing those schools and town centres to signal to the communities providing shelter that this has been brought upon them by Hezbollah’s insistence to stand with Palestine by shelling northern military targets in Israel. Only after the murderous bombing of Beirut did Hezbollah begin sending rockets and drones to Israeli cities further south.
By escalating the conflict Netanyahu is pursuing a high risk strategy with Iran.
Should Israel threaten Teheran again, Iran may respond with ballistic missiles using Russian warheads that contain massive amounts of non-nuclear explosives. These could flatten Tel Aviv. Netanyahu is waving the nuclear threat at the mullahs in Teheran but their capacity for retaliation is far greater than any other state in the region. The US administration has become nervous. So much so that they have put ‘boots on the ground’ in Israel to operate Kinetic Kill technology, THAAD missile that destroys missiles by colliding with them, using hit-to-kill technology. There is some doubt about its effectiveness against Iran’s ballistic missiles. The US administration does not wish to put too many troops into this war so as not to risk revolt at home.
Meanwhile the genocide in Gaza is burning, with over 400,000 Palestinians cut off in Gaza city without food or medicines being shelled ruthlessly day and night by the IDF. The Biden administration is an active partner in the Israeli genocide of the Palestinians and in its invasion and occupation of Lebanon. The Americans deserve Trump in an economy based on consumption and debt. The hegemony of the US$ is under threat from BRICS which controls 2/3 of the world reserves of oil and gas. The 16th BRICS summit begins today in Kazan in Russia, the home of the Tartars. Many countries wish to join.
Ian Curr
22 October 2024
