Growing up on the edge of Meanjin (Brisbane), a ‘big country town‘ in Queensland with a population of a half a million people, my birthplace was portrayed as an idyllic sub-tropical town. Government propaganda highlighted various social activities, employment and educational opportunities and lifestyles. The aim of successive Australian governments was to attract a certain class of people, preferably anglo-european who would work hard for the mining, pastoral and service industries like tourism.
Now in 2022 this city of 2.5 million may seem like a Michelangelo Antonioni film, both desolate and beautiful at the same time. In Antonioni’s Zabriskie Point, Palestine is a town in Death Valley in California. In his earlier films, industrialisation, alienation and the threat of nuclear war were on many people’s minds. At the beginning of 2023 we commemorate the dead and salute the living. Over the past three years many have been lost to Covid but the end is still not in sight. Thankfully we saw the end of Scott Morrison as Prime Minister.
Migration and Labour shortage
It seems that the emergence of TEALs and the increase in the number of Greens will not end Australia’s War on Refugees. The history of Australia has always been mainly about keeping people out (The Immigration Restriction Act 1901) and the debate over Free trade vs protectionism (1911 referendum). Australia has a small population. The mythology is that migration has built Australia, that we are a country of immigrants. The wealth Australia enjoys comes from the theft of land and applied to mining and pastoral interests. Australia has very little manufacturing capability, we can’t even make our own cars. If you are brown and poor you don’t get to come to Australia. Those workers who have been allowed to come here are at the mercy of employers. According to Ben Schneiders’ Hard Labour, there are 750,000 workers in Australia with visas that restrict their work rights. According to the Department of Immigration as at 31 March 2020, there were 2.17 million temporary visa holders in Australia. Meaning the situation has got worse since Hard Labour was published. The bulk of the temporary visa holders do the shit jobs others will not do.
It is hard to see any of Morrison’s cohort making it back. Trump and Boris Johnson are history. Does Elon Musk want to be the Republican nominee in the place of Donald Trump? We won’t know till 2024. One thing is pretty certain, Trump will not be the Republican nominee for the US presidential election in 2024.
So what of the future?
Climate change
Despite popular misconception that Australia is largely desert, in fact, only 18% of Australia is desert. The real problem is Australia’s lack of water. Added to this is a highly variable climate that is getting worse due to global heating. Combined with mostly poor soils we have a problem long-term in supporting a large population. Current agriculture is still degrading land not yet regenerating it. Our population growth rate is low. Yet we have highly fertile places that can grow a lot of food, for example, the Darling Downs in Queensland. We will need to support many more refugees in coming years as global warming and wars create chaos.
The Voice
The past reminds us of many things. In 1967, 90% of Australians voted for aboriginal people to be come part of the Census. Despite a lot of confusion, The Voice seems likely to be won, at least we hope so. It may be a sign of affirmation of the role of First Nations people in our history, but it is unlikely to Close the Gap. Perhaps it is one more step towards recognition and reconciliation for terrible things done and still being done to First Nations people.
Ukraine war
Two scenarios are being discussed.
- A Ukraine push back of the Russian armed forces and occupation from not only the territories Moscow has recently claimed to annex “forever”, but also a return of Crimea to Ukrainian control. The latter seems unlikely. Restoration of Ukrainian control over the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (those parts of Donbas occupied since 2014 and recently proclaimed independent by the Kremlin).
- Successful Russian annexation of provinces of the so-called Novorossiya region including Donetsk, Luhantsk, Odessa and Crimea.
Ukrainian Airforce
The Tingalpa model aeroclub had on display a Soviet jetfighter, the SUKHOI SU-23. It’s pilot confessed that it is not as good as more modern Russian planes. He said that the Ukrainian Air Force uses this plane in the current conflict. The local kookaburra in this clip didn’t look too impressed. I feel a bit like the Kookaburra. If the pilot is right – he has been flying model aircraft for over 30 years – there is a lot of nonsense being spoken about the ability of Ukraine to win this war. He told me with some embarrassment: “I bought this Sukhoi SU – 23 before the Russians invaded. I am sorry to say the jet still has the Red Star insignia on it.”
A long drawn out stalemate seems unlikely but is possible. Scenario (1) would mean the end of Putin and scenario (2) would mean Zelensky returning to comedy as a means of living :D. An assassination of Zelenskyi seems more likely than the much touted assassination of Putin. Both would be senseless because the Ukraine war is a conflict between nation states not individuals.
Cost of fuel
People may have noticed how sometimes the price of diesel is more expensive and other times it is less expensive than petrol. Diesel during the Ukraine war has been permanently more expensive than petrol. It takes a lot of diesel to run a war. Russia was one of the world’s largest producers of diesel and they supply that diesel mainly into the European market. “Since we’ve had sanctions against Russia that supply has stopped. And that’s caused a domino effect through markets throughout the world.” RACQ’s Dr Jefferys says. Queensland alone consumes about “two and a half times the amount of diesel as we do unleaded petrol“, Dr Jeffreys adds, something he attributes to the mining industry.
Assange
It is starting to look unlikely that Julian Assange will go to trial in the United States. A deal looks likely, and may be in the process of being thrashed out. Regardless Julian is a broken man and Wikileaks is moribund.
The Pacific States
It seems that Australia’s Wong will be outmaneuvered by China’s Wang. The Australian foreign minister Penny Wong is likely to have a diplomatic incident with Pacific states in the coming year. Privileged private school girls opinions about China won’t wash in the patriarchal halls of the Pacific Forum (founded in 1971) which include the states of Micronesia, Fiji, French Polynesia, Kiribati, Nauru, New Caledonia, New Zealand, Niue, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Republic of Marshall Islands, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu.
US Presidency
It seems likely that neither the ageing Joe Biden nor the his opponent in 2020, Donald Trump, will run in 2024. The coroner will not look favourably on Biden blowing up the Nord Stream pipelines.
Camilla Harris is likely to be the DNC’s nominee next time round.
China
The Hawks are still in the box seat in the conflict with China.
Israel
The election of another Netanyahu government spells more of the same for the Palestinian people. Israel will continue to do what they have always done: steal the land, the trees, the culture, the food and the water. Young men in Palestine are in revolt on the West Bank; in response, Israeli soldiers kill at least one young person every day.
Political economy and Peace
So that we have it and we are yet to look at economic indicators. Will supply failures lead to a collapse of the market? Will Ukraine develop into a nuclear holocaust. We hope not. Wages will continue to fall in comparison with profits inequality will continue to grow.
The Americas
In South America Lula in Brazil and Evo Morales in Bolivia look like holding on which is a step in the right direction for First Nations people, the poor and the working class in both those countries and across the Americas.
All the best for 2023.
Ian Curr
1 Jan 2023
Erratum: In 2020, Evo Morales was succeeded by Luis Arce as the Bolivian President. However Morales is still there working in the background.
Not many of my predictions came true.
2023 was an odious year.
1. Trump and Biden are still the front runners for the US presidential election’s in 2024. Trump is likely to return to the presidency in 2024.
2. It was not more of the same in the Palestine in 2023. There was a huge genocide. However the Palestinian resistance managed to thwart attempts by Israel and the United States to form an alliance with Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia.
3. South America went to the right in Argentina. Lula in Brazil only just survived the 2023 election. Venezuela went further to the right in its elections.
4. The burial of Yevgeny Prigozhin on 23 Aug 2023 in a leafy cemetery on the outskirts of St Petersburg on Tuesday, six days after he was murdered was only a temporary set back for the Russian advance in Ukraine. It is unlikely Zelensky’s regime will survive 2024.
5. Predictably the Australian government supported Israel’s genocide of the Palestinians in Gaza. The Albanese government is unlikely to survive in 2024 elections given that it also lost the referendum on the voice which it made as an electoral promise in 2022.
6. The Rich got richer and the Poor got poorer in 2023.
7. On the positive side, there was a worldwide movement to support Palestine in 2023. For example 5 million people marched in Yemen in support of the Palestinians.
So there you have it, seven factors that affected 2023.
Ian Curr
19 Jan 2024
In 2020, Evo Morales was succeeded by Luis Arce as the Bolivian President. However Morales is still there working in the background.