Every year my friends gather on New Years eve and try to predict what will happen in the coming year.
We place these predictions in a book and then in the following new year’s eve we read them to compare prediction with what actually happened.
Many of the predictions are light-hearted and some go out on a limb — participants often not expecting their prediction to come true.
However one friend did predict the 2008/9 Global Financal Crisis GFC and, what is more interesting, the reasons for it i.e. the home loan debt crisis in the financial services industry in the US as long ago as 2005.
In this thread and elsewhere there have been attempts to analyse and even to justify positions held by Left Groups in Brisbane. There is a clear danger in this, especially given the human tendency to retrospectively align their predictions with what happened. That is why we have records. The other danger is the negativity associated with trying to justfy yourself all the time.
A comrade has written to me today asking that Left Groups record what they would like to achieve over a period of three years (if you wish the timeframe to be difference please specify).
- Is it to achieve membership for your group and then this is to achieve what?
- Do you want members of Parliament? And to do what?
- What sort of civic change do you want? What do you expect?
These are just some questions that groups may wish to address. These may be more desires than expectation. My friends’ prediction book may different and light hearted but I raise it here to show that difference between desires and expectation can be subtle.
Here is one opportunity for people who belong to Left groups to put forward what they would like to achieve and what they expect.
You do not have to give up any secrets, just a broad statement of what you wish to achieve.
By the way, my predictions for the 2010 year were:
1) There will be a ‘double dip’ global recession with the second dip in 2010.
2) If the double dip recession occurs as predicted the Rudd government (and state governments) will not have the funds to spend their way out of it.
3) As a result of this second global recession:
- Obama will become (like Jimmy Carter) a one term US president,
- Anna Bligh will lose power in Qld, and
- Kevin Rudd will emulate former Prime Ministers Gorton and Keating and will suffer an ignominious defeat in the 2010 federal election to become that rare phenonmenon in Australian politics, a ‘oncer’ [i.e. a leader who wins only one election. Even Whitlam, a mildly reformist PM in a conservative electorate, managed to win two].
If my analysis is correct there is no point in the Left kowtowing to the social democratic parties or the parliamentary process, they should get on with the struggle against capitalism.
18 January 2010
The following newspapers were contacted:
- Direct Action — Direct Action aims to help build the movement for socialism. It has been initiated by the Revolutionary Socialist Party.
- Green Left Weekly Green Left Weekly, launched in 1990, by progressive activists to present the views excluded by the big business media…
- National Indigenous Times — Murri & Koori Business
- Socialist Alternative — surely there is no alternative to socialism.
- Solidarity Website of Solidarity – an Australian Socialist Group
- The Guardian Newspaper of the Australian Communist Party
- The Wobblies
- Workers Liberty — Aims to build solidarity through struggle so that the working class can overthrow capitalism…