4PR: We are speaking today with an expert on the fossil fuel crisis. Thank you for joining us. We’re discussing how the Middle East conflict is threatening global oil supplies — roughly 35% of world oil flows from the Persian Gulf and chokepoints like the Red Sea and straits near Yemen are creating major transport risks. We’ll cover refinery and crude‑quality limits (U.S. shale yields mainly light sweet crude, so heavier/sour grades are still imported and refineries need lengthy upgrades),
Recent force‑majeure declarations have halted deliveries, and caused a strain on logistics (only ~50–60 US‑flagged tankers versus ~1,800 in China).
We’ll also examine consequences for diesel, fertilizer and supply chains, the economic and military costs, and how this is accelerating moves to EVs, renewables and, in some places , nuclear — plus the humanitarian and environmental impacts.
4PR: What do you make of the energy crisis worldwide? Specifically, what capacity does the United States have to endure a protracted war with Iran from an energy and transportation perspective?
Expert: The US has a small fleet of 57 US-flagged oil tankers, whereas China operates in the order of ~1,800 tankers.
The implications are: a small US-flagged fleet limits how many ships the US can immediately call on without hiring foreign-flagged tonnage (thereby raising cost and complexity), while China’s large fleet gives it far greater commercial shipping capacity and flexibility. The US can still access additional foreign tankers, but doing so is slower and more expensive in a crisis.
4PR: Tell me about the oil tankers and the refineries that have shut down due to force majeure?
Expert: At least two oil facilities/port terminals declared force majeure after being hit, which effectively suspended their contractual deliveries (contracts are now null and void), so tankers couldn’t load oil even if available. This constrained supply despite ships being present and governments are trying to compel private companies to release reserves and even capping fuel prices in response.
4PR: How dependent is the world on Persian Gulf oil?
Expert: Global oil supply vulnerabilities from Middle East conflict are—shipping/tanker chokepoints (Red Sea, Strait near Yemen), heavy reliance on Persian Gulf oil (≈35% global), and impacts on LNG and fertilizer.
4PR: Can United States oil production accommodate these choke points?
Expert : US shale yields mainly light sweet crude, so the US still imports heavier/sour crudes (notably from Canada) needed for diesel and heavy distillates; US refinery upgrades to process varied grades are long and costly.
4PR So what is to be done?
Expert The short answer is I don’t know apart from stop the war . As I said previously several regional terminals/refineries declared force majeure after attacks, and economic cost to the military of the United States range from ~$1–2 billion/day, plus strategic concerns about Amberley air force base becoming a target if the war spreads to the Pacific with the tensions in the South China Sea.
4PR. What are the risks to Australia?
Expert: We are running out of fuel, particularly diesel.
4PR how much do we have left
Expert: We have less than three weeks’ supply in reserve.
4PR What about strategic risk?
Expert: In short, our intelligence-sharing, allied involvement (AUKUS, submarines), and risks of escalation make Australia a target.
4PR Also, specifically in Australia relating to diesel, gas, and fertilizer?
Expert: Domestic impacts are fuel shortage especially in the country areas, rising fuel and diesel prices, fertilizer and trucking risks, potential supply-chain and food/health effects, and accelerated interest in electrification, renewables, and nuclear.
4PR What about the humanitarian crisis? The Americans hit a school in southern Iran with a Tomahawk cruise missile killing over 180 people most of whom were schoolgirls? Was it intentional?
Expert: I don’t know, but we all know, in war, all rules disappear. We know from past wars involving the United States that they simply don’t care.
‘War in Iran Triggers Chaos in Global Oil Market‘
Last night the New York Times Daily podcast had some interesting comments to make about these issues:
The episode discussed how the war on Iran is disrupting global energy markets by threatening the Strait of Hormuz, a choke point that normally carries about 20% of the world’s oil and large LNG flows.
Attacks on vessels, Iranian threats, and insurance and safety concerns have slowed traffic, leaving tankers stranded and storage filling up.
That disruption has driven extreme oil-price volatility (spiking above ~$100–$119/barrel then plunging to about $86), raised gasoline and diesel costs, and prompted short-term measures in some countries (price caps, temporary suspensions of gas-based cremations, etc.).
Producers are cutting output and “shutting in” wells, which risks longer-term supply loss. U.S. options discussed include releasing Strategic Petroleum Reserve stocks, temporarily lifting the gas tax, offering political-risk insurance or naval escorts for tankers, and (as an extreme measure) reinstating an export ban. Longer-term impacts could mirror the 1970s shock by accelerating efficiency, alternative energy, and energy-security policies—though political responses may vary by country.
Listen to the podcast here:
Ian Curr
Editor WBT
13 March 2026