Not another stupid bloody war in Europe?


We post these notes by Trevor Berrill, a former Friend of the Earth and sustainable engineer, about the energy situation in the Ukraine.

We note also that “the Rothschild group entered the Ukraine as long ago as 1991-95. Similarly MI6 entered with a free hand. Basically all western intelligence agencies had a free hand in Ukraine. That’s why some experts call Ukraine ‘the sandpit of the intelligence agencies’. The CIA has a whole floor dedicated to Ukraine. We got this information now. But those who worked under cover in Ukraine in the late ’90s were already reporting that SBU is a subsidiary of the FBI and the CIA, who were actively working there. Likewise the BND (German intelligence) were very actively working with their Banderite underground.”

I note there is a gas pipeline that is more recent than the ones mentioned in the article below.

There are three natural gas pipelines from Russia to Germany.

  • One runs through the Ukraine,
  • Another runs through Poland and Belarus, and
  • Nordstream (1 & 2 – No 1 is operational No2 was completed in September 2021 but is not yet operational.) which runs all the way under the Baltic Sea, in order to avoid those three countries.

Germany still does not have a single LNG terminal, and is therefore totally dependent on Russian gas.

The National Geographic map of fossils fuels pipe from the Russian Federation to Europe (2006) is out of date. This Associated Press report explains why:

“FRANKFURT, Germany — The pipeline is built and being filled with natural gas. But Russia’s Nord Stream 2 faces a rocky road before any gas flows to Germany, with its new leaders adopting a more skeptical tone toward the project and tensions ratcheting up over Russia’s troop buildup at the Ukrainian border.

Nord Stream 2 route   –   Copyright  Credit: Euronews

Be careful what you wish for

So far it is sanctions, troop movements, diplomatic insults, hyped media speculation and leaders posturing … let’s hope it doesn’t come to a shooting war. A cyber war may result or may already be in train.

It would be a foolish move for Germany to throw support behind US and NATO aggression, Germany and other European countries need that Russian energy coming down the pipes especially in winter.

The German Greens are opposed to Northstream because it is a fossil fuel and impacts climate change (less carbon is emitted than other unsustainable petroleum products). But then it was the same Greens who supported the NATO bombing of Kosovo. The Greens leader and German foreign minister, Joschka Fischer, backed NATO’s bombing campaign against Serbia.

Trevor Berrill’s notes are instructive because they give insight into the role of energy in this and other conflict. Needless to say the Ukrainian oligarchs are opposed to Northstream because they would then lose revenue from the transit royalties from the Russian gas that flows through their country into Europe.

Ukraine has now become ‘the sandpit of capitalist exploitation’.

Let me ask you one question
Is your money that good?
Will it buy you forgiveness
Do you think that it could?
I think you will find
When your death takes its toll
All the money you made
Will never buy back your soul
– ‘Masters of War‘ by Bob Dylan

Ian Curr
27 Jan 2022.

–oOo–

Conflict in Ukraine – Russia VS EU and USA

I have been researching the conflict in Ukraine and Russia, EU and USA and its potential to escalate.

I have found some interesting facts:

  1. Russia has the EU over a “barrel” re energy independence and control. The EU is heavily dependent on coal/uranium (46.7%), gas (41.1), and oil (26.9%) from Russia.
  2. Russia supplies the Ukraine with most of its oil and gas.
  3. A large proportion of gas and some oil from Russia goes in pipelines via Ukraine to the EU.  So the Ukraine could limit or stop this energy supply to the EU and impact Russia’s income.
  4. The Ukraine Government banned Russian shipments of uranium to the EU via Ukraine in 2014. Then it did a deal with Westinghouse to purchase uranium (probably as fuel rods) for Ukraine nuclear reactors.
  5. Ukraine gets 47.6% of electricity from its nuclear reactors, so now is not as reliant on Russia for nuclear fuel.  Together with hydro-electric power generation, it is largely independent in electricity supply.
  6. Ukraine was typically known as the industrial base of the Soviet Union. The Ukraine economy has a lot of heavy industry, particularly in the East and South-east (Donbas region), predominantly Russian speaking/aligned area. This includes heavy transport (air, ships, automotive and rail), arms and space craft. It also has a large electronics and IT industry.
  7. West and central areas are more agricultural production. It is a major supplier of grains and potatoes to the EU.
  8. Corruption is rampant.
  9. While education standards and literacy are high, the majority of people are relatively poor, with an average nominal salary around 300 euro per month.
  10. There is a historical political and cultural divide between the west/central regions and east/south-east (Donbas) regions based on ethnicity, religion and language. West and central regions are more Ukrainian nationalist. East and south-east are more Russian aligned.

From looking at the above points, it seems very likely that conflict in Ukraine could escalate. All out war between the EU and Russia would be disaster for all, and a major set back to addressing the climate crisis, as wars result in massive waste of fossil fuels.

Trevor Berrill
25 Jan 2021

Sources:

Energy Dependency

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/infographs/energy/bloc-2c.html#carouselControls?lang=en

Gas and Oil Pipelines Russia to EU

https://www.nationalgeographic.org/photo/europe-map/

Economic / Cultural Aspects

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine#Economy

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Ukraine#Agriculture

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donbas

Editor’s Note: National Geographic map of fossil fuel outlets from the Russian Federation in 2006. Since then even more pipelines have been developed and some old ones de-commissioned. Please note that this map is out-of-date, new pipelines have opened up since 2006. So, to emphasize the importance of this I have added (rather crudely) to the original map using blue lines and text to show the flow of gas from Russia in more recent years.

Oil and Gas Pipelines from Russia to EU (Source above)

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