Professor Mearscheimer points out 3 areas of prime significance to the United States today: China, which is a rising power, the Persian Gulf which has the resource of oil, and so is inextricably linked to both China and Europe, and Germany and the Soviet Union have been the most significant powers affecting Europe in the 20th century.
The more recent history of Western powers challenging Russia via the eastern European neighboring countries saw NATO forces under the leadership of the United States moving heavy weapons into Ukraine and building up Ukraine’s military in the Donbass region, where the intent was clearly to retake the breakaway regions. Russia responded in kind as a warning not to attack.
The West increased its promises of support and intervention to Ukraine, as they are doing again now and stirred up the propaganda campaign about a Russian invasion, just as it is again today. Ukrainian preparations continued under the guise of an invasion over Christmas.
Then suddenly Khazakhstan erupted into chaos on Russia’s Southern border in the new year. Most people in the West expected Khazakstan to crumble under a colour revolution. But it turned out to be yet another attempted coup to distract Russia…
On 5 January 2022, CSTO peacekeepers were announced to be deployed to Kazakhstan in response to the anti-government unrest in the country and the situation was swiftly stabilized. Only 6 days later, on 11 January, CSTO forces began their withdrawal from Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan. .
Nothing has happened in the past month to strengthen Ukraine’s position relative to either NATO, Russia or the U.S., and Ukraine is realising the precarious situation it has put itself in as Western support slowly fades away and Russia holds all the cards.
Russia would gain nothing by invading Ukraine; no resources, no strategic advantage and great risks to its economy and reputation. Russia’s present influence over Turkey and Hungary has seen NATO’s power neutered somewhat, and Western Europe’s economic reliance on Russian energy has seen US power projection and influence blunted in recent days, and Ukraine is even coming around to the understanding that NATO membership is completely off the table for them.
Ukraine at some stage will need to revisit the Minsk accords and start negotiating with Russia.
17 Feb 2022