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Transitioning Queensland to Clean Energy

[Publisher’s Note: Here is the latest in a series of articles by consultant in sustainable energy, Trevor Berill. To read the entire paper click the link below. I have included the text with the figures and graphic under the link]

Transitioning Qld to Clean Energy

Our Sunshine State has a world class solar resource, and good wind, wave and biomass resources. So people often ask me, “What would it take for Queensland to transition away from fossil fuels to clean renewable energy (RE), combined with energy efficiency. Is it technically and economically possible to do this?” The answer to the last question is a resounding yes! The answer to the earlier question is explained here.

As the International Energy Agency reports show, such an energy transition is happening internationally, but slowly in Australia. Denmark, China, Germany and other EU countries are leading the way, with Germany on the path to cutting total primary energy use by 50 percent and generating 80 percent of electricity from renewables by 2050. It is already generating 30 percent of electricity from renewables. Denmark, with 39% of electricity consumption from wind in 2014, is on track towards its target of 100% renewable electricity and heat by 2035.

Figure 1 – 420MW Marcarthur Wind Farm by AGL and Meridian, 290km west of Melbourne

Figure 1 – 420MW Marcarthur Wind Farm by AGL and Meridian, 290km west of Melbourne

There is huge growth occurring internationally in RE with 59 percent of all new electricity capacity coming from renewables in 2014, and investment expenditure of $270 billion. Globally renewables are providing 23 percent of electricity generation, and 19 percent of total final energy use. There are over 7.7 million people employed directly and indirectly in RE jobs. Levelized costs of energy for electricity generation from biomass plant, hydro, wind and solar PV are now competitive with new coal and gas plant in most parts of the world.

In Australia, Tasmania, South Australia and ACT are the leaders, with SA providing 40 percent of its electricity demand from the wind and sun. A transition to a largely RE based electricity system in Queensland had started under the Bligh Labor Government’s Queensland RE Plan (2012). Modelling showed that this transition could have been achieved over about 20 years, as shown in figure 1, if the RE Plan’s momentum had been maintained.

Figure 2 – Modelling of former Labor Government RE Plan and Projected Transition to 100% RE Electricity (Source- Berrill, 2012)

Figure 2 – Modelling of former Labor Government RE Plan and Projected Transition to 100% RE Electricity (Source- Berrill, 2012)

The Australian RE industry has grown dramatically since about 2008 according to Clean Energy Council (CEC) reports, with a peak of over 24,000 direct jobs in 2012. This dropped to 20,000 by 2014, about the same number as employed in Queensland’s coal industry, due to lack of policy support by Federal and State LNP governments. Renewables now generate about 14 percent of Australian electricity demand, with total investment since 2001 exceeding $26 billion. Some State and Local governments are getting behind the RE industry again, as they realise that future jobs and investment lie in the RE industry, not coal and gas.

Queenslanders have the dubious honour of the highest per capita greenhouse gas emission in the world, more than 40 tonnes per person per year according to the State Government’s 2009 ClimateQ report. We have a lot at stake with our world heritage areas and agriculture already feeling the impacts of global warming. So we know we need to pull our weight in addressing global warming.

Figure 3 - Queensland’s CO2e Emissions Projection under Business as Usual

Note: The yellow line indicates 2000 emissions. The blue line denotes the national target of 60 percent (as of 2009) reduction below 2000 levels by 2050 applied to Queensland’s emissions.

We are trying, with over 400,000 roof-top solar PV systems and about 240,000 solar hot water systems on homes. Almost 30 percent of homes now have solar systems. That’s a great effort and shows our willingness to use solar if given the right signals. Currently we have about 2,300 Megawatts (MW) of renewables, large and small, generating an estimated 4,400 Gigawatt-hours (GWh) annually (excluded hydro pumped storage). This is enough energy for about 570,000 homes. Biomass plant (30%) and solar PV (38%) generate most of the renewable energy, with hydro (run of river) (20%) and solar water heating (11%) making large contributions.

In total, renewables currently provide almost 10 percent of total electricity consumption. Clearly we need to do better and we need to address other sectors such as transport and agriculture if we are to shift to a largely renewable energy powered society. The role of government is essential in providing the right signals and addressing structural issues.

The State Government has stated an aspirational goal of 50 percent RE electricity generation by 2030, which is a laudable target. So just how much RE generating capacity would be required to meet projected electrical energy demand by that time, and what might be the most appropriate RE technologies to use? Clearly, it will be a mix of the most economically viable technologies. Both Bloomberg and International Energy Agency (IEA) reports show that the most competitive technologies are wind farms and solar hot water, solar photovoltaic (PV), and biomass plant (E.g. sugar mills). Solar (concentrating) thermal electric (STE) is more expensive but expected to be competitive with coal by 2020. Hot rock geothermal and wave power plant have potential but are still in the R&D phase.

To achieve the government’s 50 percent RE target by 2030, we need about 9300MW of RE capacity made up of a portfolio of technologies such as:

  • 1000MW of biomass plant (currently 464MW)
  • 200MW hydro plant (run of river)(currently 167MW)
  • 1000MW hydro (pumped storage)(currently 500MW)
  • 600MW solar hot water equivalent (currently 397MW)
  • 1500MW wind farms (currently 12MW)
  • 2000MW STE plant (currently zero)
  • 3000MW solar PV both small and medium-sized rooftop and on-ground power stations (currently about 1300MW)
Figure 4 – Spanish Concentrating Solar Thermal Electric Power Stations by Abengoa Solar

Figure 4 – Spanish Concentrating Solar Thermal Electric Power Stations by Abengoa Solar

When combined with very modest energy efficiency measures to reduce the projected growth in energy consumption, this RE portfolio would provide an estimated 50 percent of projected electrical energy consumption by 2030, or about 29,000GWh. The tables in the appendices show more details. Such a portfolio would form a distributed generation network across the State, with embedded storage at strategic locations within the network, and controlled with smart communications (known as the smart or intelligent grid). The result would be a cleaner, more resilient, reliable and efficient electrical energy system, one that could handle the more frequent extremes in weather that are already a consequence of global warming. Furthermore, this would assist regional development with farmers diversifying their income by leasing non-productive land to wind or solar farms.

So what level of investment and jobs could result from this scenario? Using CEC and IEA reports, I estimate that such a RE portfolio would involve up to about $19 billion of direct investment, depending on final installed costs due to falling STE, PV and storage costs. Using data from an extensive study of RE job creation in the USA, I calculate over 18,000 direct and indirect full-time equivalent job years (FTE – a standard unit of employment measurement) by 2030, increasing from about 4000 FTEs in 2014. This is a very conservative estimate as it allows for job losses in other parts of the economy, as workers transfer across to renewables, which may or may not occur. Most industry estimates are higher.

The keys to achieving the 50 percent renewable energy target by 2030 will be strong, long term policy that drives the industry forward, and the removal and redirecting of subsidies from the fossil fuel industries to support renewables and energy efficiency. You can view suitable policy measures and details of subsidies to fossil fuels in my recent energy policy paper, “Sustainable Queensland – Transitioning to a Clean and Efficient Energy System”. The paper can be downloaded at www.sustainablequeensland.info.

  1. Other relevant reports by the author are available at his website www.trevolution.com.au

About the Author

Trevor Berrill is an award winning, private consultant in sustainable energy (SE). He has worked in both renewable energy (RE) and energy efficiency (EE) for almost 40 years, including in RE system design and installation, energy efficient building design and energy auditing, research at UQ, QUT and GU, product development, RE education and training and policy.

He is the author of “Solar Electricity Consumer Guide” and author/co-author to a range of RE technical training resources books. Trevor was branch president of the Australian Solar Energy Society and a founding member in Queensland of the Alternative Technology and Wind Energy Associations.

Trevor is trained in mechanical engineering and energy auditing at QUT and has a Masters of Environmental Education degree from Griffith University. He lives in a fully solar powered, energy efficient home which includes the first grid connected solar PV system in the Redlands. He windsurfs regularly at Wellington Point, just to test the power of the wind.

Appendix 1 – RE Capacity (MW) and Generation (GWh)

Technology 2014 Estimated Capacity (MW) 2014 Estimated Energy (GWh) 2030 Target Capacity (MW) 2030 Target Energy (GWh) Assumed Capacity Factor
Biomass 464 1301 1000 5957 0.68
Hydro (Run of River) 167 895 200 1069 0.61
Hydro (Pumped Storage) 500 657 1000 1314 0.15
Solar Hot Water 397 493 600 1051 0.2
Wind 12 30 1500 3942 0.3
Solar Thermal Electric 0 0 2000 10512 0.6
Geothermal 0.12 0.89 0.2 1.5 0.85
PV 1267 1676 3000 5256 0.2
(MW) (GWh) (MW) (GWh)  
Total Renewable Energy Capacity (MW) & Generation (GWh) 2807 5052 9300 29102
Energy Efficiency and Demand Management 246 NA NA 11619
Year & Qld. Electricity Consumption from AEMO 2013/14 46442 2029/30 58242
Renewable Energy as Percentage of Consumption (%)   10.9 50 %
Energy Efficiency as Percentage of Consumption (%)   NA 20 %

Sources:    

Berrill, 2015 – www.sustainablequeensland.info – includes additional output of hydro pumped storage.

AEMO (2014) – http://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/Planning/Forecasting/National-Electricity-Forecasting-Report

Notes:

Growth rates in consumption and energy efficiency savings are based on AEMO projections – approximately 1.4% pa. for total consumption from 2014, and 20% pa. energy savings, starting at 611GWh for 2014-15.

Capacity factors for the following technologies taken from:

  • Biomass – Australian Sugar Milling Council submission to RET Review 2014, Sucrogen Aust. Pty. Ltd. and Stanwell Corporation reports (by Burbidge) for long term on-site biomass storage.
  • Hydro (both run of river and pumped storage) – from Green Energy Markets analysis (Brazalle, 2014) and Stanwell Corporation Annual report (2010).
  • Solar Hot Water – calculated as the equivalent electrical capacity of 238,000 x 1.67kW PV systems (See Berrill, 2015)
  • Wind – conservative estimate averaged across windfarm locations as AGL estimates for Coopers Gap Wind Farm and Mt Emerald windfarm, both forecast higher capacity factors. Wind may be combined with local pumped storage as wind farms tend to be located in elevated terrain.
  • Solar Thermal Electric – molten salt storage on site as per Spanish power tower systems. IEA roadmap reports show capacity factors from 0.45 to 0.75.
  • PV – Calculated from typical industry values for PV arrays facing north. Will be a little lower for east or west facing arrays.

Appendix 2 – Employment Creation and Investment by 2030

Technology Current Jobs 2014 (FTEs) Additional Jobs (FTEs) Additional Investment ($mill.) $mill. per MW
Biomass 520 1862 1608 3.00
Hydro (Run of River) 260 50 28 0.85
Hydro (Pumped Storage) 191 191 425 0.85
Solar Hot Water 217 246 549 2.70
Wind 10 1252 2992 2.01
Solar Thermal Electric 0 4625 10000 5.00
Geothermal 0.4 0.3 0.2 3.00
PV 2765 5908 3466 2.00
Jobs (FTEs) Jobs (FTEs) Total

Investment ($ mill.)

Average $mill/MW
3962 14134 19068 2.05
Total FTEs 18096

Sources:

CEC reports and specific Australian RE project websites.

IEA Roadmap 2012 – Bioenergy Power and Heat

IEA Roadmap 2012 – Geothermal Power and Heat

IEA Roadmap 2014 – Solar Photovoltaic Energy

IEA Roadmap Roadmap 2014 – Solar Thermal Electric

IEA Roadmap 2013 – Wind Energy

RE job study USA – see reference for Wei et al, 2010.

Notes:

Full-time job equivalent (FTE) – One FTE is full-time employment for one person for 1 year. This is taken here as 1762 work hours per year per full-time employee based on 38 hours per week, 4 weeks annual leave and 8 public holidays (ESQ, 2011).

 References

 Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) (2015). National Electricity Forecasting Report 2014 – Summary Spreadsheet. http://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/Planning/Forecasting/National-Electricity-Forecasting-Report

Australian Labor Party (2015). A Solar Future – Powering Queensland’s renewable energy industries. ALP election platform.

Australian Sugar Milling Council (2014). Submission to RET Review. https://retreview.dpmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/webform/submissions/Australian%20Sugar%20Milling%20Council_ASMC_140516%20RET%20Submission.pdf

Berrill, T. (2015). Sustainable Queensland – Transitioning to a Clean and Efficient Energy System. www.sustainablequeensland.info

Berrill, T. (2014). Acland Sustainable Energy Plan: An Alternative to the New Hope Acland Mine – Food, jobs and clean energy production on Acland land. A report prepared for the Oakey Coal Action Alliance. Available at: www.trevolution.com.au

Berrill, T. (2012). Clean Energy Pathways? – A Review of Energy Policy in Queensland with a Regional Case Study of the Impacts on the Felton Valley. A report for Friends of Felton. Available at: www.trevolution.com.au

Blakers, A., Pitcock, J, Talent, M., Markham, F. (2010). Pumped hydro for large scale storage of solar generated electricity in Australia. Solar 2010 conference paper available from Andrew.Blakers@anu.edu.au

Bloomberg New Energy Finance (2013). Renewable energy now cheaper than new fossil fuels in Australia. http://about.bnef.com/press-releases/renewable-energy-now-cheaper-than-new-fossil-fuels-in-australia/

Bloomberg New Energy Finance (2013). Strong growth for renewables expected through to 2030. http://about.bnef.com/press-releases/strong-growth-for-renewables-expected-through-to-2030/

Blyth, W. et al (2014). Low carbon jobs: The evidence for net job creation from policy support for energy efficiency and renewable energy. UK Energy Research Centre. http://ecowatch.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/UKERC-Low-Carbon-Jobs-Report.pdf

Brazzale, R. (2014). GEM estimates based on LGC creation and baselines. http://greenmarkets.com.au/resources/review-of-the-nem-in-2014

Burbidge, D. (2005?). Renewable Energy Boost Rural Queensland. Stanwell Corporation.

Clean Energy Council (2014). Clean Energy Australia 2014 Report. www.cleanenergycouncil.org.au

Clean Energy Council (2013). Clean Energy Australia 2013 Report. www.cleanenergycouncil.org.au

Clean Energy Council (2012). Clean Energy Australia 2012 Report. www.cleanenergycouncil.org.au

Climate Council (2015). The Global Renewable Energy Boom: How Australia is missing out. http://www.climatecouncil.org.au/uploads/4025a09a22121667977e19f6e33a1ea3.pdf

CSIRO (2011). Intelligent Grid Project. Project Reports available at: http://igrid.net.au/resources/downloads/summary/intelligent_grid_research_cluster_executive_summary.pdf

Deloitte Access Economics (2013). Building our nation’s resilience to natural disasters. A report to the Australian Business Roundtable for Disaster Resilience and Safer Communities.

Department of Employment, Economic Development and Innovation (DEEDI) (2009 & 2012). Queensland Renewable Energy Plans – 2009 and 2012.

Department of Environment and Resource Management (DERM) (2009). ClimateQ: toward a greener Queensland. Ch. 3, p.15.

Elliston, B., MacGill, I. and Diesendorf, M. (2014). Comparing least cost scenarios for 100% renewable electricity with low emission fossil fuel scenarios in the Australian National Electricity Market. Renewable Energy 66:196-204.

Epstein, P. et al (2011). Full cost accounting for the life cycle of coal. Published in Annals of the New York Academy of Science: Ecological Economics Reviews.

ESQ (2011). Energy Skills Queensland – Summary Report – Quantifying Direct Employment within Queensland’s Renewable Energy Sectors. Prepared for the Office of Clean Energy.

Morris, C. & Pehnt, M. (2014). German Energy Transition Plan. http://energytransition.de/

Hearps, P. & McConnell, D. (2011). Renewable Energy Technology Cost Review. Melbourne Energy Institute Technical Paper, Uni. Of Melbourne.

HSBC (2015). The Rise of Renewables. HSBC Global Research. Reported in RenewEconomy, 28 April, 2015. http://reneweconomy.com.au/2015/renewables-at-pinch-point-as-hard-economics-trumps-green-idealism-61637

International Energy Agency (IEA) (2015). Energy Technologies Perspectives Report. http://www.iea.org/etp/

IEA (2014). Technology Roadmap – Solar Photovoltaic Energy. www.iea.org

IEA (2014). Technology Roadmap – Solar Thermal Electricity. www.iea.org

IEA (2013). Technology Roadmap – Wind Energy. www.iea.org

IEA (2013). World Energy Outlook – Summary. http://www.iea.org/Textbase/npsum/WEO2013SUM.pdf

IEA (2012). Technology Roadmap – Bioenergy Heat and Power. www.iea.org

IEA (2011). Technology Roadmap – Geothermal Heat and Power. www.iea.org

Morris, C. (2015). Magic of energy efficiency revealed as Germany aims to cut consumption. Report in Renew Economy, 10 April, 2015. http://reneweconomy.com.au/2015/magic-of-energy-efficiency-revealed-as-germany-aims-to-cut-consumption-50-51906

Renewable Energy Policy Network for 21st Century (2015). Renewables 2015 – Global Status Report. http://www.ren21.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/REN12-GSR2015_Onlinebook_low1.pdf

Stanwell Corporation (2010). Annual Report 2009/2010. http://www.stanwell.com/wp-content/uploads/Annual-Report-2009-10.pdf

Sucrogen Aust. (2010). Submission No. 43 to Qld. Environment and Resources Committee Inquiry – Growing Queensland’s Renewable Energy Electricity Sector.

Wei, M., Patadia, S., Kammen, D. (2010) Putting Renewables and energy efficiency to work: How many jobs can the clean energy industry generate in the US? Energy Policy No. 38 (2010) 919–931

Further Reading
Australian Academy of Science (2015). Climate change challenges to health- Risks and opportunities. Recommendations for the 2014 Theo Murphy High Flyers Think Tank. https://www.science.org.au/sites/default/files/user-content/documents/think-tank-recommendations.pdf

Australian Conservation Foundation. (2011). Climate Expenditure and Subsidies. http://www.acfonline.org.au/sites/default/files/resources/climate_expenditure_and_subsidies.pdf

Climate Change Authority (2014). Reducing Australia’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Targets and Progress Review—Summary. http://www.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/reviews/targets-and-progress-review-3

Coady, D., Parry, I. Sears, L. Shang, B. (2015). How Large Are Global Energy Subsidies? IMF Working Paper WP. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2015/wp15105.pdf

IMF (2013). Energy Subsidy Reform: Lessons and Implications. Report prepared by the International Monetary Fund.

IEA (2011). IEA Analysis of Fossil Fuel Subsidies. www.iea.org

IEA (2011). World Energy Outlook – Executive Summary. www.iea.org

Muller, N et al (2011). Environmental accounting for pollution in the United States economy. American Economic Review, August, 101,pp.1649-1675.

National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) (2012, 2014). Renewable Electricity Futures Study. http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/re_futures/

Peel, M. et al (2014). Mining the age of entitlement – State government assistance to the minerals and fossil fuel sector. The Australia Institute Technical Brief No.31. www.tai.org.au

Quiggin, J. (2015). The world is waking up to the $5.3 trillion cost of fossil fuels. The Conversation, 22 May, 2015.

Quiggin, J. (2015). Queensland’s miners will need a miracle to profit from coal now. Guardian Australia, 29 April, 2015.

Steffen, W. et al (2015). UNBURNABLE CARBON: WHY WE NEED TO LEAVE FOSSIL FUELS IN THE GROUND. A report by The Climate Council. http://www.climatecouncil.org.au/uploads/bbde02cecaa0963cc2a2d01c495043fb.pdf

Union of Concerned Scientists (2013). Benefits of Renewable Energy Use. http://www.ucsusa.org/clean_energy/our-energy-choices/renewable-energy/public-benefits-of-renewable.html#.VUsDV0eJiUk

Vorrath, S. (2013). Graph of the Day: Renewables creates more jobs/$ than fossils, nuclear. Report in Renew Economoy, 21 March, 2013.. http://reneweconomy.com.au/2013/graph-of-the-day-renewables-create-more-jobs-than-fossils-nuclear-97361

Wright, M. & Hearps, P. (2010). Australian Sustainable Energy: Zero Carbon Australia – Stationary Energy Plan. University of Melbourne, Energy Research Institute – Beyond Zero Emissions.

Author: Trevor Berrill http://www.trevolution.com.au September 2015 Version 1

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