Predictions on Parliamentary Politics

Sancho Panzas and Don Quixotes
And, alas, some Lots from Sodom
Are sampling the deadly juice.
Aphrodites rise from the foam,
Helens shimmer in the mirrors,
And the time of madness nears
— Anna Akhmatova

Socialists should not get too caught up in parliamentary politics. There is no real change coming from parliament. However once in a while, the madness surfaces to reveal that truth is stranger than fiction.

Having said that, I made a written prediction on New Year’s eve 2009 which reads:

  1. There will be a double dip recession in 2010 (meaning the second dip of the 2008 recession)
  2. The Rudd government will not have access to funds to spend their way out of it.

Obama will emulate Jimmy Carter, Anna Bligh will emulate Paul Keating and Kevin Rudd will emulate John Gorton.

That is they will all become ‘oncers’.

[‘oncer’ = only serves one term as Prime Minister or President]

Part of this prediction came true when Rudd was deposed by Gillard, he has become a ‘oncer’. Part of this was his own stupidity, Rudd launched a mining tax without mobilising support in his political base in the Labor Party. It was a top down decision without building a case for the benefits that would accrue to workers if the government had more money to spend on infrastructure.

Such is the stagnation in global capital, Gillard has lacked the money to buy a second term in the way the Howard did while he was in government.

My prediction was a lucky one. No one was seriously thinking on New Year’s eve that Rudd would be deposed and that his government would be on the verge of defeat in the 2010 election. But accuracy in prediction is not the real point — it is a frivolous excercise at best — for example Gillard may still win thus making my prediction less precise. No one can forsee the future, but to understand why things occur can often give us insight into the world around us and enable a reasoned response to events as they occur.

Interets rates
I think that we misunderstood the reason for the defeat of the Howard government. It was down to interest rates. The government could not contain them, it hurt people with mortgages and so they voted for Rudd. Remember Howard lost his own seat of Bennelong, such was the concern even in the wealthier electorates. Certainly workers were worried about their loss of rights and conditions under WorkChoices but that was a pull factor organised by their unions, the push factor was that people’s mortgages were costing them and reducing their expected standard of living.


Rivers of bile in Griffith

There were rivers of bile in Stanley Street, Woolloongabba last night. We have received this report from ‘4PR – Voice of the people’ who were on the spot to cover the madness.
You may have not heard yet, but most of Brisbane’s TV media is assembled outside the Mater Private Hospital (in the electorate of Griffith) ready and waiting to report just how much bile Kevin Rudd’s gall bladder holds.

Surgeons have a big task in front of them tonight to remove what much be one of the largest gall bladders in political history, that of Kevin Rudd. Retired surgeon, Dr Eric Saint has informed our news room that usually key hole surgery would be used in gall bladder removal but in a case like this it would be more like open cut mining so large is the organ shown on the ultra sound.

One thing seems certain — Kevin Rudd won’t be giving out leaks of the type he gave the Laurie Oaks (Channel Nine) this week on Julia Gillard’s remarks to cabinet on Parental leave:

“This parental leave is going to cost us how much? Can we afford it? And how about this pension increase. How much will that set us back? I’m simply looking at it from all angles. I mean how much does a pensioner really need to live? Besides they all vote Liberal, don’t they? “

Workers Media (4PR) was on hand to ask the important questions along with the rest of the media scrum: ‘how much bile is there left in Rudd’s gall bladder?’

Over the years, we had been mildly sceptical of all the stories of abuse and harassment dealt out by Rudd to public servants, airline staff, night club security — even since he was Wayne Goss’s right hand man here in Qld. But the proof is in the Mater Private surgical ward tonight.

It is only recently we have realised what a nasty piece of work the ex-PM is personally as well as politically. But these days, aren’t all the people at the top in companies, parliament, church and public service all evil nasty people.

Alas, so bad is traffic outside the Mater Private hospital on Stanley St Woolloongabba that the 4PR mobile van was soon forced to drive on.

We hope that when Kevin Rudd gets out and back on the campaign trail (minus the bile) he will do something about the traffic congestion outside his electorate’s biggest private hospital. His slogan does say ‘Standing up for the south side’ after all.

One postscript just to hand.

Cheryl Kernot, former Australian Democrat turned ALP cabinet minister has emerged from retirement to run for the Senate in NSW. Cheryl was quoted saying her objective is to return some respect to the institution of parliament.

Sorry Cheryl, you’re on a hiding to nothing there, given the current focus of parliamentary politics.

This is 4PR – the voice of the people, on the roadside near the Mater Private hospital, wishing there was a political organisation built on collective good rather than on ego and bile.

Worth Voting for:
Sam Watson (Socialist Alliance) in the Senate (Qld)
Hamish Chitts (Revolutionary Socialist Party) for Griffith
Andrew Bartlett (Greens) for Brisbane

and any other socialist candidate on the ballot paper.

Ian Curr
August 2010

PS

If there are none (or even if there are) a ‘No to Privatisation’ discretely written on the side might make the job of AEC workers a little less boring when they do the counting on election night

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